Articles of the month: Dec 2020

The Terrorism in Armed Conflict project integrates the Uppsala Conflict Data Project sample of rebel organizations with START’s Global Terrorism Database, covering 409 organizations for 1970–2013. For many Global Terrorism Database incidents, perpetrator information is missing, or ambiguous. Because the accuracy of perpetrator information likely varies systematically, simply dropping these incidents from analyses may bias results. Terrorism in Armed Conflict provides possible attribution to specific rebel groups with coding for uncertainty, enabling researchers to (1) address “description bias” in media-based terrorism data, (2) model uncertainty regarding perpetrator attribution and (3) vary the way terrorism is counted. The Terrorism in Armed Conflict dataset further provides a measure of deliberately indiscriminate terrorism that allows for more nuanced testing of arguments about the strategic logic of terrorism.

Do foreign fighters increase the prevalence of rebel-inflicted sexual violence? Evidence from recent armed conflicts indicates that this may be the case. However, little is known regarding the generalizability and nature of this relationship. This article argues that foreign fighters present local insurgencies with both strategic benefits—i.e., a reduced dependency on local civilians for material support—and organizational challenges—i.e., threats to intra-group cohesion. In combination, these factors increase local rebel commanders’ willingness to institute policies and oversee practices of sexual violence. I test this theory with a mixed methods research design. In the first stage, I estimate a series of ordinal logistic regression models with a sample of 143 rebel groups active from 1989 to 2011. In the second stage, I investigate further with a case study of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Together, the results demonstrate that when foreign fighters are present in the rank and file, a rebel group is likely to perpetrate more prevalent levels of sexual violence. In addition to explaining group-level differences in rebel-inflicted sexual violence, this study demonstrates how local rebel commanders adjust their internal management strategies to the presence of foreign recruits.

Research has shown the potential of nonviolent civil resistance in challenging autocratic state regimes (e.g. Sharp, 1973; Chenoweth and Stephan, 2011). Yet, little is known about its applicability in jihadist proto-states, that is, territories governed by militant jihadist groups. We argue that civil resistance is more likely to occur when jihadists impose a rule that local populations perceive as alien and when organizational structures capable of collective nonviolent mobilization are activated. We develop this argument through a comparative analysis of three jihadist proto-states: one in which manifest and organized civil resistance occurred (Islamic Emirate of Azawad in Mali in 2012), and two in which it did not: the Islamic State of Iraq (2006–2008) and the Islamic Principality of al-Mukalla in Yemen (2015–2016). Whereas the former was met with mainly armed resistance (the Sunni Awakening campaign), the latter saw neither armed nor unarmed organized and collective resistance by locals under its rule. We demonstrate how variation in the jihadists’ governing strategies (especially the degree of adaptation to local conditions) as well as in the social structures for mobilization (i.e. whether opposition was channeled through civil society networks or tribal networks) created different conditions for civil resistance. This study adds to a growing research discussion on civil resistance against rebel governance (e.g. Arjona, 2015; Kaplan, 2017). More broadly, our study is an innovative first attempt to bridge research on terrorism, rebel governance, and civil resistance, three fields that have been siloed in previous research.

This research note examines the intersection of ethno-nationalist and Salafi-jihadi propaganda content across ideological boundaries: the toxic relationship between supporters of these ideologies is highlighted through an analyses of case study examples of the Christchurch, New Zealand terrorist attack, official as well as unofficial Islamic State propaganda, and data gathered from white nationalist chatter online. The research note also notes how these groups create essentialist narratives about Muslims and Islam as part of their wider efforts to establish rigid worldviews. Finally, it discusses the presence of anti-Muslim prejudice in mainstream public spheres and suggests areas of opportunity for further research.

Previous studies suggest an overrepresentation of autistic people among terrorist offenders, specifically lone-actors, as compared to the general population. At present, there is little literature which examines core autistic traits and how these may make individuals susceptible to adopting radical ideology. Such findings would support the identification of individuals who may require intervention, and help to minimise the risk of exploitation and criminalisation of individuals with autism. This study was commissioned by a specialist school for autistic children in England to provide guidance for staff on how to identify and manage autistic young people at risk of being radicalised. The study included 34 qualitative interviews with experts in the field. Participants included National Health Service staff, academics, educational staff and counter-terrorism officers, as well as young people with autism from the UK. This paper presents findings relating to the existing evidence; key autistic traits and environmental contexts that may contribute towards a susceptibility to radicalisation; the current safeguarding measures and referral system, and; appropriate interventions across the trajectory into radicalisation, specifically the role of early intervention. Findings will help support clinicians and criminal justice professionals when working with individuals who present with radical ideology and have an autism diagnosis.

This study explores the photographic representations of two terrorist incidents, the 2015 Paris attacks and the Beirut bombings, produced by the leading global news agencies. The study conducts a content analysis of the photographs produced by AP, Reuters and AFP to identify the recurring patterns of the images under the discourse of ‘othering’ and ‘grievability’. It is observed that the agencies represented the two incidents differently as they show distinctive patterns in their manners of portrayal. It is argued that the apparent ‘hierarchy of news values’ is accompanied by the ‘hierarchy of human lives’ within the photographic representations, whereby the photographs of the Paris attacks, recognized as an extraordinary event, speak of humanization in which lives of the sufferers are valued while the photographs of the Beirut bombings, seen as an ordinary event, speak of dehumanization, where lives are devalued. Implications for global journalism and news value are discussed.