Articles of the month: January 2020

Religious minorities have been persecuted in Pakistan since the country’s creation in 1947. However, the rise of Islamization in the 1970s and 1980s added to the intensity of discrimination, prejudice and violence against religious minorities. Widespread structural violence meant that religious minorities experience marginalization and violation of their civil rights. As witnessed around the world, the 9/11 terrorist attacks changed global dynamics, with negative effects on Muslim–Christian relations. Since the onset of the US-led war in Afghanistan and drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, there has been a rise in anti-American/anti-Western sentiment among Pakistani Muslims. Consequently, some extremist groups view local Christians with suspicion, labelling them Western agents. While the backlash against the US-led war in Afghanistan is seen as a major factor behind violence against Christians, deep-rooted socio-economic dynamics also contribute to the vulnerability of Christians and other religious minorities. Drawing on statements from two prominent Pakistani newspapers, this research employed critical discourse analysis and the framework of (de-)humanization to examine changes in newspaper reporting about Christians before and after 9/11, finding that there was a decrease rather than an increase in the level of dehumanization of Christians after 9/11, and an increase in humanization compared to pre-9/11 reporting.

Muslim converts tend to be overrepresented in terrorist activity compared to fellow nonconvert Muslims. However, due to the low base rate of terrorism activity, there is a significant risk that this overrepresentation is a “false positive.” We therefore tested the prevalence of far more common, but potentially antecedent, cognitions to terrorism—activism and radicalism––among convert and nonconvert Muslims. We surveyed 356 American Muslim adults, of which 177 were self‐identified converts, with the Activism and Radicalism Intention Scale or ARIS. We found that converts as compared to nonconverts do demonstrate higher activism and radicalism intention scores. We also found that activism fully mediates the relationship between conversion and radicalism. This suggests that converts may be more likely to engage in radical behavior (such as terrorism) than nonconverts, but only because they are more likely to engage in activism than nonconverts. We discuss these findings in light of current psychology and political mobilization literature, then we offer suggestions for future research on the relationships between conversion, activism, radicalism, and terrorism.

The well-established argument in the literature suggests that the higher state capacity is associatedwith the lower chance of experiencing civil conflict or higherchance of defeating the violent non-state groups. However, theliterature does not sufficiently address how these groups respondto increasing state capacity, and how their responses to that shapethe dynamic of political violence. I investigate the impact of statecapacity on terrorist group termination by exploring the waysterrorist groups respond to increasing state capacity. I argue thatincreasing state capacity might lead to a set of responses fromthe terror group in a way that it might induce the group to producemore terrorist violence to show that the group can still persist. Itmay also encourage the group to provide positive and negativeincentives to its constituents in order to rehabilitate its physicalcapacity to operate, and to prevent a shift of popular support a wayfrom the group towards to the government. Thus, such responsesof the group will decrease the likelihood of its terror campaign. Ialso expect that these arguments are especially relevant for ethnicor religious terror groups. The results of the empirical analysessupport these theoretical expectations.

 Since 2014, numerous publications have analyzed different aspects of the Islamic State, from its military tactics and ideological doctrines to its governance and media operations. This article summarizes key lessons from the authors’ efforts to collect, analyze, and present a holistic perspective of this movement through its own works and words dating as far back as its inception in the late 1990s. The authors present three frames through which to understand the movement’s ability to navigate through spectacular highs and crippling lows: the centrality of territory and population control to its revolutionaary warfare campaigns, the deliberate routinization of its leadership and organization, and the way its propaganda has continuously been deployed to support its leaders and strategy. Seen through the retrospective lens presented here, the Islamic State movement demonstrates an approach to institutional learning and adaption that has long been central to its innovations and resilience as an insurgency.

Research pays little attention to the diverse roles individuals hold within terrorism. This limits our understanding of the varied experiences of the terrorist and their implications. This study examines how a terrorist’s role(s) influence the likelihood of and reasons for disengagement. Using data from autobiographies and in-person interviews with former terrorists, we find that role conflict and role strain increase the probability of disengagement. We show those in certain roles, especially leadership and violent roles, incur greater sunk costs and possess fewer alternatives making exit less likely. Finally, certain roles are associated with the experience of different push/pull factors for disengagement.

Female migrant workers, especially domestic workers, have often been portrayed as victims of exploitation, abuse, violence, and marginalization in the literature. In recent years, however, reports on the radicalization of female migrant workers and their engagement in terrorism have started to emerge. Female migrant workers, who were otherwise only nominally religious before migrating for work, are reportedly embracing radicalized forms of religion and violence after being exposed to extremist content on social media. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in relation to the widespread use of social media. It fits within an emerging body of literature that is beginning to portray these workers as agents for change and of their own destiny rather than helpless subjects and victims of exploitation. The paper examines the role of religion and religious institutions as a means for coping as well as for empowerment, emancipation, and resistance. It also questions the interlinkages between the feminization of international labour migration and violent extremism, and it calls for more research on the lived experiences of vulnerable female workers in order to better understand the complex and multifaceted dynamics of radicalization and violent extremism within the context of migration, especially in relation to the role of technology.

This article explores how propaganda can be used to construct counter-factual visual narratives at times of war. Specifically, it examines how the Islamic State communicated its way through the 100-day-long battle for east Mosul, which was launched by the coalition and its allies in October 2016. Drawing on Jacques Ellul’s 1962 theory of propaganda, it uses qualitative content analysis to decipher the 1,261 media products published online by the group during the first phase of its defence of the city. The author contends that, even though it was resoundingly defeated there by January, the global legacy of this battle, which was used as a testing ground for a series of potent innovations in insurgent strategic communication, will endure long into the future.

Guided by previous research and recent empirical analyses, this paper gives insight into elements that characterize the spatial decision making of terrorist target selection. Five key factors explain why targets are chosen by terrorists. The authors propose that, generally, targets will be selected when they are Tolerable, Relevant, Accessible, Close and/or Known. This is followed by a discussion of attacks witnessed between January 2013 and December 2018 in the United Kingdom, and implications.